History of climate change

1824 : French physicist Joseph Fourier describes for the first time the Earth’s “greenhouse effect”.

 

Under-Sea

1861

Irish physicist John Tyndall shows that water vapour and certain other gases create the greenhouse effect. “This aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man,” he writes.

1896

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius concludes that industrial-age coal burning will enhance the natural greenhouse effect and suggests this might benefit future generations. His speculation on the likely size of the “man-made greenhouse” is remarkably similar to modern climate models.

1938

British engineer Guy Callendar shows that temperatures rose over the previous century, using records from 147 weather stations around the world. He also shows that combustion-produced CO2 concentrations increased over the same period.

1957

US oceanographer Roger Revelle and chemist Hans Suess show that seawater will not absorb all the additional CO2 entering the atmosphere, as many had assumed. Revelle writes: “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment…”

1958

US scientist Charles David Keeling begins systematic measurements of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa in Hawaii and in Antarctica, leading to the first unequivocal proof that CO2 concentrations are rising.

1965

US President’s Advisory Committee panel warns that the greenhouse effect is a matter of “real concern”.

1972

First UN environment conference in Stockholm, concentrating on chemical pollution, atomic bomb testing and whaling.

1987

Montreal Protocol restricts chemicals that damage the ozone layer. Rich countries to phase out first, developing countries to follow later.

1988

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed to collect and assess evidence on climate change. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies tells a US Congressional hearing he is 99 per cent sure that global warming is under way.

1989

Margaret Thatcher warns in a speech to the UN that “We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere… The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto.” She calls for a global treaty on climate change.

1990

The IPCC’s First Assessment Report concludes that temperatures have risen by 0.3-0.6C over the last century, that man-made emissions are adding to the atmosphere’s natural complement of greenhouse gases, and that the addition would be expected to result in warming.

1992

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is signed at the Rio World Summit. The primary objective is the stabilisation of greenhouse gas to avoid climate change. Some 192 countries have signed up so far.

1995

The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report concludes that the balance of evidence suggests “a discernible human influence” on the Earth’s climate – this has been called the first definitive statement that humans are responsible for climate change.

1997

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed nations agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least five per cent by 2012, but the US later refuses to take action. Developing nations, including China, have no formal binding targets. Rich countries agree to take action first on the model of the Montreal Protocol

1998

Warmest year in warmest decade in warmest century for at least a thousand years, magnified by a strong El Nino.

2001

The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report concludes that there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. President George W Bush removes the US from the Kyoto process.

2005

The Kyoto Protocol becomes international law for those countries still inside it.

2006

A comprehensive economic assessment of climate change, by Lord Stern, concludes that global GDP could be damaged by up to 20 per cent if global warming is left unchecked – but curbing it would cost about one per cent of global GDP.

2007

The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report concludes that it is more than 90 per cent likely that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for modern-day climate change. The Bali Road Map sets out a two-year process towards a binding agreement in 2009 in Copenhagen.

2008

UK passes the Climate Change Act committing the country to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050. Climate Change Committee under Adair Turner sets target of 34 per cent cut by 2020, increasing to 42 per cent if there is a global agreement to cut emissions.

2009

China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter – although the US remains well ahead on a per-capita basis. In Barcelona, at the latest round of UNFCCC negotiations, officials admit a legally binding treaty is unlikely by the end of the year because rich and poor nations cannot agree on targets.

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