UN report on glaciers melting is based on ‘speculation’

An official prediction by the United Nations that the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035 may be withdrawn after it was found to be based on speculation rather than scientific evidence.

Pictures showing the contrast between the glaciers in 1968 and in 2007 when Greenpeace visited the Himalayas
Pictures showing the contrast between the glaciers in 1968 and in 2007 when Greenpeace visited the Himalayas
The peak of Mount Kilimanjaro in east Africa as seen from an aircraft in 1992 (left) and 2005 (right). The famous ice field that is just three degrees south of the equator could completely melt away in the next 20 years if the earth continues to warm at the current rate, scientists claim
The peak of Mount Kilimanjaro in east Africa as seen from an aircraft in 1992 (left) and 2005 (right). The famous ice field that is just three degrees south of the equator could completely melt away in the next 20 years if the earth continues to warm at the current rate, scientists claim
Scientists believe that Greenland, with its melting ice caps and disappearing glaciers, is an accurate thermometer of global warming
Scientists believe that Greenland, with its melting ice caps and disappearing glaciers, is an accurate thermometer of global warming


Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the claim which it said was based on detailed research into the impact of global warming.

But the IPCC have since admitted it was based on a report written in a science journal and even the scientist who was the subject of the original story admits it was not based on fact.

The article, in the New Scientist, was not even based on a research paper – it evolved from a short telephone interview with the academic.

Dr Syed Hasnain, an Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said that the claim was “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research.

Professor Murari Lal, who oversaw the chapter on glaciers in the IPCC report, said he would recommend that the claim about glaciers be dropped.

The IPCC’s reliance on Hasnain’s 1999 interview has been highlighted by Fred Pearce, the journalist who carried out the original interview.

Mr Pearce said he rang Hasnain in India in 1999 after spotting his claims in an Indian magazine.

He said that Dr Hasnain made the assertion about 2035 but admitted it was campaigning report rather than an academic paper that was reviewed by a panel of expert peers.

Despite this it rapidly became a key source for the IPCC when Prof Lal and his colleagues came to write the section on the Himalayas.

When finally published, the IPCC report did give its source as the WWF study but went further, suggesting the likelihood of the glaciers melting was “very high”.

The IPCC defines this as having a probability of greater than 90 per cent.

The report read: “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.”

However, glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise. The maximum rate of decline in thickness seen in glaciers at the moment is two to three feet a year and most are far lower.

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